Scott Pendlebury is a footy outlier and here's the proof (2024)

In AFL circles, Scott Pendlebury is in rare air. He has touched the ball more times than anyone in the history of the game. He has laid more tackles. He's a dual premiership player, a Norm Smith medallist, a six-time All-Australian, the longest-serving Collingwood captain, and five-time club best and fairest.

Last Saturday, against historic rivals Carlton, he played game 400, a feat achieved by just five other players in VFL/AFL history.

To understand the key to Pendlebury's longevity, the ABC has collected and analysed decades' worth of data which reveal the key traits that separate him from the pack.

Each dot represents one game played across Pendlebury’s 19 seasons in the AFL.

In 238 of these games, he had 25 or more possessions.

Scott Pendlebury is a footy outlier and here's the proof (1)

In the league’s best and fairest award, the Brownlow medal, he polled 221 votes across 102 games. He has the most two-vote games in history.

Scott Pendlebury is a footy outlier and here's the proof (2)

He has played in five grand finals and 26 other finals.

Scott Pendlebury is a footy outlier and here's the proof (3)

The MCG hosted 252 games, the most of any player in history. He has played interstate just 95 times.

Scott Pendlebury is a footy outlier and here's the proof (4)

He played 204 games in front of crowds over 50,000.

Scott Pendlebury is a footy outlier and here's the proof (5)

And for 7 games, he played with this infamous haircut.

Scott Pendlebury is a footy outlier and here's the proof (6)

The Pendlebury legacy

Despite playing for Collingwood (arguably the league's most divisive club), his regrettable dreadlocks, and the luxury of playing three-quarters of his career games in Victoria, Pendlebury is widely admired by fans from all areas. He might be the AFL's equivalent to Roger Federer. A nice guy. A footballing purist without controversy or fuss.

"He's very rarely on the front or back page. When he makes a comment, it's well-thought-out and well-structured. He is very fair. He keeps himself in really good nick. He is a good family man. All the things you want to see with a great sportsman, he is," said premiership coach and ABC Sport expert Mick Malthouse.

"He just wants to go out there, play well, and do well for his team. People love that.

"I'm not sure Collingwood could have the same success that they do without him."

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Time and space

Since his debut in 2006, Pendlebury has built a reputation for finding time and space on the field where others can't.

North Melbourne champion and AFL games record holder Brent Harvey considers Pendlebury "more advanced than most players" with the ball.

"He's so good with his hands, he's so good with his feet, and he's so good with vision. We've all said it … it looks like he's going in slow motion," Harvey said.

Pendlebury's basketball background has been quipped about ad nauseam. It was even mentioned by commentators when he booted a goal with the first kick of his career.

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But Malthouse believes Pendlebury's experience on the smaller court is what helps him see the game differently.

"His uniqueness is making the game come to his pace, and I think basketball is a great teacher of that," he said. "He's able to make quick decisions, know where his teammates are, know where the opposition is, and know the circ*mstances of what to do."

Quantity and quality

Finding time and space isn't just for show, it often leads to better decisions and more precise and damaging disposals.

Pendlebury regularly operates in areas of high pressure and congestion, yet he remains one of the least likely players in the AFL to make a mistake.

The chart below compares current players by the frequency of their mistakes, or "clangers". You can see that Pendlebury is an outlier both in terms of quantity and quality of his possessions.

Scott Pendlebury is a footy outlier and here's the proof (7)

Harvey says that opposition teams couldn't stop Pendlebury from getting the ball, they could only aim to limit his effectiveness when he did.

"I can remember a lot of team meetings and sitting in there and saying that we need to shut down Scott Pendlebury if we're to win the game," Harvey said.

"He works so hard and he's so smart, but it's about trying to negate those possessions when he had the football. You had to cover his left side. You didn't want him to kick the ball, you wanted him to handball it, but … his hands were so good that he was [still] setting plays up."

The consistency king

Scott Pendlebury is a footy outlier and here's the proof (8)

Pendlebury isn't known for tearing games apart like Richmond champion Dustin Martin or former Hawthorn and Sydney great Lance Franklin. Nor is he known for accumulating a huge number of possessions per game. In fact, he has had just one 40-disposal game in his entire career.

With Pendlebury, it's death by a thousand cuts. He delivers more consistent weekly performances than most other contemporary greats. The gap between his best and worst is, statistically, razor-thin.

The charts below provide a snapshot of the disposals per game across the career of some of the league's top players. A narrower curve indicates greater consistency.

Scott Pendlebury is a footy outlier and here's the proof (9)

"One of his greatest assets, of course, is his consistency", said Malthouse, who attributes it to Pendlebury's "positional prowess".

Pendlebury says his emphasis on consistency comes from "listening to a lot of coaches" and "things that great people have said about how important every week is".

"Every game of my career, I've put a little bit of pressure on myself that it's the most important game and you have to perform."

Does he still have it?

Pendlebury has steadily been getting less of the ball over the past nine years, a common trend for veteran midfielders.

The chart below highlights how most players perform below their career average in their final 10 seasons, with Brent Harvey and David Mundy as notable exceptions.

Scott Pendlebury is a footy outlier and here's the proof (10)

"He's probably slowed the last 3-4 years, but it isn't noticeable because he's still able to make good decisions," said Malthouse.

Although Pendlebury isn't saving his best for the last years of his career, Collingwood still clearly views him as pivotal to their short-term success.

Last week, Collingwood confirmed Pendlebury would play again in 2025, meaning Brent Havey's all-time record of 432 games might be in his reach.

The path to 432

If Pendlebury plays the rest of the home and away season, he will sit equal fourth with Richmond Tigers great Kevin Bartlett for most games played, on 403.

With Collingwood in doubt to play finals this year, the all-time record largely hinges on his form and availability next year.

Pendlebury will most likely need to play again in 2026 to overtake Harvey, by which time he would be 38 years old. Both Brent Harvey and Hawthorn and Port Adelaide great Shaun Burgoyne played until 38, and Essendon's Dustin Fletcher until 40. So can he do it?

"Who knows," says Harvey, the current games record holder. "People were writing him off at the start of the year, then he had a really good middle of the year, then he got injured. It all depends on form.

"If he's playing good football he'll probably go again [into 2026]."

In Pendlebury's own words: "It's whether I'm contributing to the team and still have the fire in the belly to want to keep competing and win."

Credits

Reporting, design and data: Brody Smith

Development: Thomas Brettell and Katia Shatoba

Video production: Jack Fisher

Editing: Mark Doman and Clare Blumer

Data used in this story

All player career data used in this story is courtesy of the amazing database at AFL Tables.

In the chart that compares the standard deviation of disposals per game for the top players, individual games were not counted if the player was substituted in or out of that game, or if they played less than 50 per cent of the total game time. The objective was to eliminate games where the player was injured or otherwise not able to have adequate time on-field. Where the percentage of game time played was not available, the game was included by default.

Image of Scott Pendlebury with Dreadlocks: Getty / Quinn Rooney

Posted, updated

Scott Pendlebury is a footy outlier and here's the proof (2024)
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